A Projection for the Turkish Economy in 2023 with a Bayesian Approach

Mesut Murat Arslan, Fatma Ozgu Serttas, Recai Aydin


Turkish economy has almost experienced a continuous growth process since the first quarter of the year 2002, except for the year 2009 in which the impact of global financial crisis was felt. As a result of this growth period, Turkey has become the 17th largest economy in the world and has set big targets as to join one of the largest 10 economies in the world. In this study, we investigate whether Turkey would be able to meet its 2023 targets or not if the trends and dynamics that have been experienced during the last decade continue. Specifically, we will examine if Turkey’s exports will reach 500 billion US dollars, Turkey’s GDP will reach 2 trillion US dollars, and Turkey’s GDP per capita will reach 25 thousand US dollars. Furthermore, the path that Turkey’s macroeconomic indicators should follow in coming years and the different applicable scenarios in order to reach these 2023 economic targets will be studied. The results of this study show that those 2023 targets will not be met. So if Turkey is serious and insistent on these targets, this study may be a warning to policymakers to take the necessary measures when there is still enough time and opportunity.


Turkish Economy, DSGE-VAR, SOE, Bayesian Methods. Jel Classification: C11,C13,C68

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21533/isjss.v2i1.56


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